Poker Strategy

Stop Bluffing Like This To Increase Your Poker Winrate

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We’ve all been there: maybe you got sucked out on by a fish with a gutshot, or maybe the table nit called down your bluff in a spot they really shouldn’t have. Whatever the reason, you immediately feel the surge of anger, frustration, and aggression begin to well up inside you.

That’s when you look down at your cards and see JTs. You 3-bet the aggressive opener and fire two streets with a gutshot of your own. Unfortunately, the river bricks, and you’re left holding the equivalent of two napkins. You know the board composition and opponent profile mean a third barrel is unlikely to get a fold, but you’ve already invested a significant portion of your stack, and the memory of that last hand is still fresh in your psyche. So you load up and bomb your remaining chips into the middle, only to get snapped off by a weak top pair.

As you walk away from the table, the dealer’s call of “SEAT OPEN” ringing in your ears, you wonder to yourself: how do I keep getting so darn unlucky?

Of course, luck has nothing to do with it. If you could see the situation with some perspective, you would realize that although you couldn’t control the earlier suckout, and that there was nothing wrong with barrelling the flop and turn with your JTs, committing the remainder of your chips to a hopeless river bluff was nothing more than the product of tilt.

In a spot like this, where I feel the urge to fire a third barrel but some part of me knows I shouldn’t, my favorite question to ask myself before pulling the trigger is:

Would I make this same bluff on the first hand of the tournament? Would I see this spot as a good bluff candidate when I’m feeling most refreshed, optimistic, and looking forward to a long grind?

If the answer is probably not, as it often is in spots like this, then I remind myself that the optimal approach is to fold my cards and spend the remainder of the hand (or the orbit) bringing myself back to center. I remember too that controlling bluff tilt is especially important in times when I’ve already been caught bluffing, or if the players at my table are already suspicious of my aggression for whatever reason. That’s because in that situation not only will my bluffs be far less valuable, but the proper strategy adjustment is actually doing the exact opposite. Meaning, if I’m expecting lighter calls, the right approach is to reduce my bluffs (aka “tighten my ranges”) and ruthlessly value-bet my made hands. The more out of line my opponents have seen me getting, the weaker the hand I can bet for value (this is why in heads-up poker middle pairs, and even hands as weak as ace or king-high, can often be good candidates for a value bet). And while bringing oneself off tilt will look different for each one of us, a good place to begin is by slowing down the breath, noticing any tension that’s present in the body, and visualizing it passing through you like clouds through the sky to end a storm.

So the next time frustration and tilt threaten to lead you into a hopeless bluff, remind yourself that poker is just as much about managing your emotions as it is playing your cards, and that by accepting the small Ls, no matter how painful they may be in the moment, we avoid the bigger ones and give ourselves the best chance of getting back into the game.

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