Poker Basics Poker Probability for Beginners URL has been copied successfully! You’ll have to master poker probability to become a successful poker cash game player. There’s more to poker than luck – a lot of math goes into making decisions. Not only will understanding probability and how to apply it help you make tough decisions at the poker tables, but it will also improve your long-term chances at winning. Starting with Basic Hand Probabilities New players tend to overestimate or underestimate the strength of certain hands. These mistakes, when consistently repeated, become very costly in cash games. By understanding the frequency of a hand – or any specific combination of cards – it will help players further evaluate a starting hand, and subsequent decisions made.Many beginners believe suited cards are far stronger than unsuited cards. But the probability of being dealt two suited cards is fairly high, at around 23.5%, and the probability of completing a flush by the river is only about 6.5%. Similar to this, a straight draw is completed only at a rate of around 4.6% by the river. These numbers do seem to say that while chasing certain draws might seem enticing, the likelihood of success isn’t as high as it feels in the moment.New players can be more selective at the beginning by starting to play with strong hands, including high pocket pairs such as Aces, Kings, and Queens, or premium suited connectors like Ace-King suited. The probability of being dealt pocket Aces, for example, is approximately 0.45%, or once every 221 hands. Being well aware of how seldom such hands appear should make new players value them more when they do pop up, and not overplay weaker hands too often. Understanding Outs and Drawing Odds One common situation a new player faces in Texas Hold’em is drawing hands-one card from making either a straight or a flush. Understanding outs is crucial in assessing whether to call, fold, or raise in these situations.Let’s say, for instance, that you have four cards to a flush after the flop – two in your hand, two on the board. There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck and you’ve already seen 4 of them. That leaves 9 outs that could complete your flush.Using the Rule of 2 and 4, new players can roughly approximate the probability of hitting one of these outs. All you have to do is multiply your outs by 4 if you’re on the flop – because you still have two cards to come, turn and river – or by 2 if you’re on the turn. Here 9 outs times 4 gives you a 36% chance of making your flush by river.Compare that now to having an open-ended straight draw, meaning you have one of two different ranks where you need to hit one of those to complete your straight. Example: You’re holding 6-7, and the board shows you 8-9. Here you have 8 outs-four cards of each rank to complete the straight. By the Rule of 4, your odds of hitting one of those outs are about 32%. Applying Pot Odds to Decision Making The pot odds are the ratio of the size of the pot to the size of the bet that you must call While it’s important to have an idea of the chance with which you will improve your hand, it is equally important to know how that chance compares to the pot odds you are receiving. The pot odds are the ratio of the size of the pot to the size of the bet that you must call. This understanding helps players in making long-term, mathematically correct decisions.For example, suppose there is $100 in the pot and your opponent makes a bet of $25. You’re getting 4:1 pot odds since you’re calling $25 to potentially win $100. Compare these odds with your drawing odds. If you think your chance at drawing a flush is roughly 36%, or about 2:1, then calling the $25 is a good decision because you are receiving favorable pot odds compared to your drawing odds.On the other hand, if the pot only has $50 and your opponent is merely betting $25, you’re only getting 2:1 pot odds. In this case, it’s not going to be profitable to chase the flush since you are not good enough to call. Equity and Coin Flips Many times, you’ll find yourself in a cash game where there are two players in the pot, but more often than not, the hands are of similar strengths. Once again, you’re going to find the thought of equity – or % of the pot that you’re expected to take – in trying to determine just how profitable continuing on with a hand is.One simple example of this occurs anytime you’re holding a pair against two overcards, such as pocket 10s versus Ace-King. The instinctive thing to feel is that big Ace-King is the better of the two hands, but the pocket pair will actually have about 55% equity, meaning it will win the pot more than half of the time. Situations like these are commonly referred to as a “coin flip,” since the two hands will have relatively even chances of winning.This can be helpful in changing their mindset for newer players who can understand that, in the long run, poker is often a percentage game. Even in the instances of getting all the money in with the best of it at a slight advantage and losing the hand, you have still made a positive EV decision. Make plenty of +EV decisions over lots and lots of hands, and you will be profitable. Bluffing and Probabilities Bluffing is an integral part of poker; it needs to be deep-rooted with probabilities. The inexperienced usually fall into the trap of playing too many bluffs or at the wrong time. By using probability, you estimate how often your opponent will fold and thereby find out whether a bluff is profitable or not.For example, assume that the pot is $100 and you are betting $50 as a bluff. You want your opponent to fold more than 33% of the time to make the bluff profitable since you are risking $50 to win $100. If you think he will fold more than one-third of the time, the bluff is likely good. However, if he is unlikely to fold that often, you are better off saving your chips. Exploiting New Player Mistakes Another way in which you can exploit other players using your knowledge of poker probability is when you are playing against new players. For instance, newer players can easily overestimate bad hands like top pair with a bad kicker or suited cards that do not connect all that well. With these players, you want to bet hard with strong hands so that they will call with poor hands, and thereby give you an advantage.On the other hand, newer players will too often be too prone to chasing draws when the odds aren’t good. When you determine an opponent is trying to chase a straight or a flush on poor odds, betting bigger can force them to make mathematically bad decisions. New players can easily overestimate bad hands Focus on Long-Term Results Perhaps most importantly, the concept of poker probability plays out over the long run. You can do everything right-say, making decisions based on probability-but still lose any single hand due to short-term variance. By consistently making +EV decisions, you will see positive results over time. As conclusion Understanding poker probability is the prerequisite to improving a poker cash game strategy. Being able to learn how to work out outs, the drawing odds, pot odds, and equity – and being able to use those tools to make correct decisions – most definitely will go a long way toward helping table players become far more successful in the long term. Americas Cardroom Americas Cardroom Updates & Announcements: providing a comprehensive summary of the week’s key happenings and significant announcements within ACR Poker.