If cleared, these ETFs would bring prediction-style trading into mainstream brokerage accounts
Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares have filed paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to introduce a new type of exchange-traded fund tied to US election outcomes. The products would track political event contracts rather than traditional stocks or bonds.
Bitwise plans to list six funds under the PredictionShares brand on NYSE Arca. Two would focus on the 2028 presidential race, offering separate funds tied to a Democratic or Republican victory. Additional pairs would target control of the Senate in 2026 and the House in the same cycle.
Each ETF would invest at least 80% of its assets in binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. These contracts settle at $1 if a specific outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If the predicted party loses, the related fund could lose nearly all its value.
GraniteShares submitted a similar proposal the same day, mirroring the structure across the same major federal races. Investors would essentially choose which political outcome they believe is more likely and buy shares accordingly.
Share prices would fluctuate between zero and one dollar, reflecting the market’s implied probability of each result. Polling shifts, campaign developments, and breaking news could move prices quickly, much like activity on prediction markets.
Analysts say the filings reflect a broader trend of packaging niche strategies into ETF form. A recent application from Roundhill offered a comparable lineup of election-based funds, suggesting issuers see demand for politically linked investment vehicles.
