By combining advanced stats, you can build a more accurate picture of a game’s potential outcome
Predicting NBA spreads accurately requires more than just gut feeling or casual analysis of team performance. Advanced statistics can provide valuable insights that sharpen predictions, allowing bettors to make more informed decisions. By incorporating key metrics into your analysis, you can gain a clearer understanding of how a game may unfold and improve the accuracy of your spread predictions.
One of the most important stats to consider is Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), which adjusts field goal percentage to account for the added value of three-pointers. Teams with high eFG% tend to be more efficient offensively, which can influence how they cover spreads. If a team is shooting efficiently, they are more likely to stay within or exceed the spread, especially against opponents with poor defensive metrics.
Another useful stat is Defensive Rating, which measures how many points a team allows per 100 possessions. A team with a strong defensive rating is more likely to limit an opponent’s ability to score, increasing their chances of covering the spread.
Conversely, teams with poor defensive ratings may struggle to stop offensive powerhouses, potentially causing them to fail to cover or even lose by a larger margin than expected.
Pace is also critical when analyzing spreads. A team that plays at a fast pace increases the total number of possessions in a game, which can lead to higher scoring and more opportunities to cover a spread.
Teams that push the tempo typically benefit from a higher-scoring environment, but they also risk giving up more points. Conversely, slower-paced teams may be more methodical in their approach, leading to lower-scoring games and more control over covering the spread.
Other advanced stats like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Assist-to-Turnover Ratio can also offer additional context. A high PER indicates a player is efficient and impactful, and a strong assist-to-turnover ratio suggests a team is taking care of the ball and limiting scoring opportunities for the opposition.
