The National Football League is built on a foundation of parity, where any given Sunday can produce a stunning result that defies expectations. These monumental upsets, where the underdog triumphs against a heavily favored opponent, form some of the most enduring memories for fans. This analysis examines five of the most significant NFL underdog wins from the past ten years, highlighting the games where determination and strategy overcame overwhelming odds.
1. New York Jets Stun The Rams as 17-Point Underdogs (2020)
In Week 15 of the 2020 season, the Los Angeles Rams were soaring with a 9-4 record and a dominant defense. Conversely, the New York Jets were winless at 0-13 and widely considered the league’s worst team. The Rams were favored by a colossal 17 points, making a Jets victory seem implausible. However, in a shocking turn of events, the Jets, led by quarterback Sam Darnold, executed a nearly flawless game. Their defense stifled the Rams’ offense, forcing key turnovers and securing a 23-20 victory. This win stands as one of the largest upsets by point spread in modern NFL history.
2. The “Minneapolis Miracle”: Vikings Stun Saints (2018 Playoffs)
The 2018 NFC Divisional Round playoff game pitted the New Orleans Saints against the Minnesota Vikings. The Saints, led by Drew Brees, were 5-point favorites playing on the road. With just seconds remaining, the Saints kicked a field goal to take a 24-23 lead. In what became an instant classic, on the final play of the game, Vikings quarterback Case Keenum threw a deep pass to Stefon Diggs, who caught it and sprinted into the end zone for a 61-yard touchdown as time expired. This play, dubbed the “Minneapolis Miracle,” resulted in a 29-24 Vikings win and is remembered as one of the most dramatic endings in playoff history.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars Topple The Bills In The 2018 Wild Card
Entering the 2018 AFC Wild Card game, the Buffalo Bills were riding a wave of momentum, ending a long playoff drought. They were 9-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The game, however, was defined by defensive grit. The Jaguars’ top-ranked defense lived up to its reputation, harassing Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor all game. While the final score of 10-3 was not pretty, it was effective. This victory proved that a stout defense could neutralize a favored opponent and propel a team to the next round of the playoffs.
4. Tennessee Titans Dethrone The Ravens (2020 Playoffs)
The Baltimore Ravens finished the 2019 season as the AFC’s top seed with a 14-2 record, largely due to the MVP season of quarterback Lamar Jackson. They hosted the Tennessee Titans, a 6-seed who were 10-point underdogs. The Titans, however, had a proven blueprint: a powerful running game led by Derrick Henry. Henry rushed for 195 yards, controlling the clock and keeping Jackson off the field. The Titans defense also contained the dynamic Jackson, forcing multiple turnovers. The stunning 28-12 victory by Tennessee sent the top-seeded Ravens home and cemented Derrick Henry’s status as a postseason force.
5. Cleveland Browns Dominate The Steelers In The 2021 Wild Card
The Pittsburgh Steelers had swept the Cleveland Browns during the 2020 regular season and were 6-point favorites heading into their Wild Card matchup. From the very first play, the game turned upside down. The Browns forced a Steelers turnover on the opening snap and scored a touchdown, setting the tone for the entire game. Cleveland’s offense, led by Baker Mayfield, was efficient, while their defense completely flustered Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Browns built a 28-0 first-quarter lead and never looked back, winning 48-37 to secure their first playoff victory in over 25 years.
Common Threads in Major NFL Underdog Wins
While each upset is unique, several common factors often contribute to these shocking NFL underdog wins. Analyzing these games reveals a consistent pattern that allows less-favored teams to compete and triumph.
Key Factors Contributing to Upsets
| Factor | Impact on the Game |
| Turnover Margin | Forcing key turnovers provides extra possessions and shortens the field for the underdog’s offense, often leading to crucial points. |
| Defensive Pressure | A relentless pass rush can disrupt the timing of a favored team’s offense, leading to mistakes and stalled drives. |
| Ball Control & Time of Possession | A strong running game keeps the opponent’s high-powered offense on the sideline, controlling the game’s tempo. |
| Special Teams Play | Blocked kicks, long returns, or clutch field goals can provide a vital spark and swing momentum dramatically. |
These elements demonstrate that NFL underdog wins are rarely flukes. They are typically the product of a specific game plan executed to perfection, combined with critical mistakes from the favored team. The ability to capitalize on opportunities is what separates a surprising effort from a historic upset victory.
The Lasting Impact of an NFL Underdog Win
The resonance of a major upset extends far beyond a single game’s final score. These victories can define a franchise’s trajectory, alter the course of the playoffs, and create legends out of previously unheralded players. For fans and analysts, these games serve as a powerful reminder that in the NFL, preseason predictions and point spreads are rendered meaningless once the game begins. The potential for a stunning NFL underdog win is what keeps every fan watching, regardless of the score, because history can be made on any given play.
