The sports betting landscape is filled with complex wagers, and one of the most popular is the teaser. Specifically, Teasers Bets on the National Football League (NFL) attract a large volume of recreational action every week. A teaser is a type of parlay bet where the player adjusts the point spread (or total) in their favor for multiple games in exchange for a lower potential payout. To win, every individual selection, or “leg,” of the teaser must cover the adjusted spread.
Understanding the Mechanics of Teaser Bets
A standard NFL teaser allows the bettor to shift the point spread by 6, 6.5, or 7 points. The trade-off for this advantage is that the combined odds for the teaser are significantly lower than a standard parlay of the original point spreads. The most common form of this wager is the two-team, six-point NFL teaser.
For example, if a team is a -7 favorite, a six-point teaser moves the line to -1. This dramatically increases the probability of that single leg winning, as the team now only needs to win by two or more points. Similarly, a +2.5 underdog becomes a +8.5 underdog, crossing the key numbers of 3 and 7, which are the most common margins of victory in the NFL.
The Financial Trade-off in Standard Teasers
While the point adjustment appears highly favorable, the price reduction—or “juice”—charged by sportsbooks often makes the long-term expected value (EV) negative. A standard two-team, six-point NFL teaser is typically priced around -120. This means a bettor must risk $120 to win $100. To simply break even over the long run, each leg of a two-team teaser at -120 odds needs to have a win probability of approximately 73.85% (the square root of the teaser’s implied probability of 54.55%).
Historical NFL data suggests that a randomly selected game line, when teased by six points, does not cover at a rate high enough to meet this 73.85% break-even threshold. Therefore, most casual Teasers Bets are poor value wagers.
Identifying High-Value Teaser Bets: The Wong Teaser Strategy
Despite the generally poor value of standard teasers, an established strategy popularized by professional gambler Stanford Wong demonstrated how to create positive expected value (EV) Teasers Bets. This strategy, known as the “Wong Teaser,” focuses on maximizing the value of the six points by ensuring the line shift crosses the two most significant margins of victory in football: 3 and 7 points.
The core of this strategy targets specific original point spreads:
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Underdogs: Target teams with an original spread of +1.5, +2, or +2.5. A six-point tease moves these to +7.5, +8, or +8.5, crossing both the +3 and +7 key numbers.
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Favorites: Target teams with an original spread of -7.5, -8, or -8.5. A six-point tease moves these to -1.5, -2, or -2.5, crossing both the -7 and -3 key numbers.
Historically, selections meeting the Wong criteria have covered the teased spread at a high enough rate—often exceeding 75%—to clear the required break-even point of a -120 two-team teaser, making them profitable over the long run.
Illustrative Example of a Wong Teaser
| Team Selection | Original Spread | 6-Point Teased Spread | Key Numbers Crossed |
| Game 1: New York Giants | +2.5 | +8.5 | +3 and +7 |
| Game 2: Kansas City Chiefs | -7.5 | -1.5 | -7 and -3 |
| Potential Win | Giants lose by 8 or less AND Chiefs win by 2 or more. | Both legs must cover the new line to win the teaser. | Maximizes win probability by avoiding common final score margins. |
Common Teaser Mistakes and Poor Value Teaser Bets
While the Wong strategy offers an exception, most Teasers Bets fall into the category of poor value. Bettors should be aware of several scenarios where the theoretical edge gained from the extra points is significantly diminished.
Teasing Through Zero
A common mistake is taking a favorite with a small spread (e.g., -4 or -5) and teasing it into an underdog (e.g., +2 or +1). While this may seem appealing, the value of the points is wasted because the line crosses 0. NFL games rarely end in a tie, meaning the difference between a spread of +0.5 and -0.5 is effectively meaningless in terms of probability. A point is wasted when it lands on a margin that is extremely unlikely to occur, such as a tie.
Teasing Totals and Other Sports
The key number principle relies on the non-uniform distribution of NFL final score margins. This principle does not translate effectively to:
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Totals (Over/Under): The distribution of final totals is much flatter than point spreads, meaning each point is worth a similar amount. Teasing a total by six points does not offer the same disproportionate increase in probability.
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College Football or Basketball: The higher scoring, broader range of outcomes, and different common margins of victory in these sports diminish the value of a fixed six-point teaser adjustment compared to the NFL.
Super Teasers and High-Leg Teasers
“Super Teasers” (e.g., 10 or 13 points) and teasers involving three or more teams also generally represent poor value. As with any parlay, the required probability for each individual leg to break even increases with the number of legs or the size of the point adjustment relative to the payout. Unless the payout is exceptionally generous, the difficulty of all selections winning outweighs the increased cushion.
Determining if Teasers Bets Offer Value
The question of whether Teasers Bets are a good wager depends entirely on the bettor’s strategy and discipline. For the vast majority of recreational bettors who select games arbitrarily, teasers are a mathematically unfavorable bet in the long run. The house edge, which is the sportsbook’s built-in advantage, is often too high on these wagers to be consistently beaten.
However, for the sharp bettor applying a highly disciplined approach—specifically targeting games that fit the Wong Teaser criteria and shopping for the best odds (ideally -120 or better on two-team, six-point NFL Teasers Bets)—a small but sustainable edge can still be found. Ultimately, a critical, mathematically-driven approach is essential for any long-term success with this complex type of wager.
