How much you wager with each bet should be based on several factors
Determining the appropriate moneyline bet size in NFL betting is a key aspect of effective bankroll management. Experienced bettors know that establishing the bankroll guidelines is the first step to being successful, and there are several tips to consider when deciding how much to wager on a moneyline bet in NFL games.
Before placing any bets, assess the size of your bankroll. It’s crucial to allocate a portion of your bankroll specifically for NFL betting and avoid risking more than you can comfortably afford to lose. A general guideline is to keep your bet sizes between 1% to 5% of your total bankroll per wager.
Examine the moneyline odds assigned to each team in the matchup. Moneyline odds indicate the payout ratio for a winning bet. Convert these odds into implied probabilities to determine the likelihood of each team winning. Compare the implied probabilities to your own assessment of the teams’ chances to identify value bets.
Evaluate your confidence level in the bet. If you have a strong conviction in a particular team’s chances of winning, you might consider placing a larger bet size. Conversely, if you’re unsure or the matchup is particularly unpredictable, it might be prudent to reduce your bet size or avoid the bet altogether.
Analyze the potential return on investment (ROI) for your moneyline bet. Higher underdog odds offer a greater potential reward but come with increased risk. Conversely, betting on heavy favorites may yield smaller returns but offer a higher probability of winning. Weigh the risk-reward ratio based on your assessment of the game and your desired betting strategy.
Take into account any relevant factors that could impact the game’s outcome, such as team injuries, weather conditions, team motivation, or coaching strategies. Adjust your bet size accordingly based on the level of uncertainty introduced by these factors.
Establish a consistent betting strategy and stick to it. Avoid making impulsive or emotionally driven bets that deviate from your predetermined bankroll management plan. Consistency and discipline in bet sizing can help protect your bankroll over the long run.
Keep a record of your bets, including the bet size and outcome. Regularly evaluate your performance and adjust your bet sizing strategy based on your success rate and the overall profitability of your wagers. This ongoing assessment will help you fine-tune your approach over time.
Editor-in-Chief of the Big Blind, a prominent gambling industry publication, brings 30+ years of journalism experience to his role. His vision emphasizes clarity, accessibility, and responsible journalism, making the Big Blind a trusted source in the online gambling sector.
