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Unlocking Market Percentage: Your Key to Smarter Betting

Unlocking Market Percentage: Your Key to Smarter Betting
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Understanding market percentage is crucial to any sports bettor seeking to enhance his strategy and make intelligent decisions. Market percentage, also known as overround or vig, short for vigorish, refers to the total implied probability of all possible outcomes of a sporting event; in other words, the calculation of odds done by bookmakers. This will give a very similar measure of the bookmaker margin, or edge, over the bettors and of how good or bad a given betting market is for the consumer.

What is Market Percentage?

At the heart of a market, the percentage is basically the probabilities of the various possible outcomes of any given sporting event that the bookmaker perceives it to be. By setting the odds in any game, the bookmaker is basically making a prediction over what the outcome of such an event will be. In this regard, they trim these odds in a way that will leave them a margin between profit and loss; whatever the eventual outcome of the event will be, the sum total of any market percentage often comes out over 100%.


Let’s consider for a second a straightforward tennis match between Player A and Player B. In the case in question, if the odds for Player A are -150 and for Player B +120, then those would become the implied probabilities.


  1. Calculating Implied Probability:
      For Player A:
      Implied Probability=100/(150+100)​=60%
    • For Player B:

    • Implied Probability=100/(120+100)=45.45%
  2. Adding these probabilities together gives us:

  3. 60%+45.45%=105.45%

In this scenario, the total market percentage is 105.45%, indicating that the bookmaker has a margin of 5.45% built into the odds.

Why Does Market Percentage Matter?

For beginners in sports betting, understanding market percentage is essential for several reasons:

  1. Understanding the Bookmaker’s Edge:
    Basically, this percentage shows the edge that a bookmaker has over bets. If the market percentage is higher, then the bookmaker margin is larger, so bettors may have a more difficult time being profitable.

  2. Identifying Value Bets:
    In betting, value can be more advantageously found in the market, which has a lower total market percentage. This is because a low percentage indicates smaller bookmaker’s edge, hence giving the bettor higher chances of winning. For example, using a match where the total percentage of the market is 102 means that the bookmaker has been taking a margin of 2, hence giving a better market percentage in comparison to any other market at 110.

  3. Strategic Betting:
    The knowledge of the market percentage will make a bettor aware of the precise placing of the bets. If you can identify any event in which the market percentage is below average, you may find more favorable odds, probably leading toward any profitable opportunities present in betting.

Calculating Market Percentage

To calculate the market percentage for an event, follow these steps:

  1. Convert each set of odds into implied probabilities.
  2. Sum the implied probabilities of all possible outcomes.
  3. The total should give you the market percentage.

Here’s an example with a soccer match where Team A is playing against Team B and a draw is possible. Suppose the odds are:

  • Team A: 2.00 (even money)
  • Team B: 3.50
  • Draw: 3.00
  1. Calculating Implied Probabilities:
    • Team A:Implied Probability=100/2.00=50%
    • Team B:Implied Probability=100/3.50≈28.57%
    • Draw:Implied Probability=100/3.00≈33.33%

  2. Adding the Probabilities: 50%+28.57%+33.33%≈111.90%

In this case, the total market percentage is 111.90%, which means the bookmaker’s margin is 11.90%.

Using Market Percentage to Your Advantage
Using Market Percentage to Your Advantage

Factors Affecting Market Percentage

Several factors can influence the market percentage in sports betting:

  1. Popularity of Event: Events like the Super Bowl or World Cup have more action. Bookmakers may have to set odds a little tighter, with lower market percentages, to compete for those bettors.
  2. Betting Volume: The volume of bets generally speaking, introduces changes in the odds as the bookmaker adjusts his sheets to balance his liabilities. If they receive a lot of action on one side of the game, the bookmakers may shrink the odds of that particular side. This, over the long run, will introduce an effect on the general market percentage.

Market Competition: In a competitive betting market with multiple bookmakers offering odds on the same event, you might find lower market percentages. This is because bookmakers adjust their odds to attract more bettors.

Using Market Percentage to Your Advantage

As a beginner in online sports betting, utilizing market percentage can greatly improve your betting strategy:
  • Shop the best odds: With many bookmakers setting lines on the same event, sometimes you will find better odds at one than another. Use market percentages between a number of sites to find better value and lower vig.

  • Evaluate Betting Markets: Before placing a bet, work out the market percentage to understand the bookmaker’s margin. If you come across any match whose market percentage is considerably over 100%, then you must ask yourself whether such odds reflect true probabilities or if there is value elsewhere.

  • Market Movements: Observe the changes of odds over time as an event approaches. Large shifts could indicate how money from the general betting public is being placed and can give some idea about possible outcomes.

Final Thoughts

Understanding market percentages in sports betting is an important thing, especially in developing one’s betting skills. Being able to understand the concept of implied probabilities and how they relate to the bookmaker margins informs the bettor on better means of making good choices. 

This helps not only in searching out value bets but also in refining your overall betting strategy. As you begin to explore the world of online sports betting, attention to market percentage can make all the difference between success and failure.

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